MLB Sunday matchups: Pitching insights and offensive strategies for July 26 games

By Jordan Hayes — 26 July 2026 — 5 min read

Sunday’s Pitching Matchups and Key Statistics

A full slate of MLB games is scheduled for Sunday, July 26, featuring several intriguing pitching matchups. Among the pitchers returning from injury, Ranger Suarez of the Boston Red Sox is set to start against the Toronto Blue Jays. Suarez has maintained a 2.60 FIP, a 9.56 K/9 rate, and a 0.49 HR/9 rate. The Blue Jays currently rank last in runs scored, which could benefit Suarez as he aims to pitch enough innings for a win.

Jacob deGrom of the Texas Rangers will face the Seattle Mariners. deGrom boasts a 10.94 K/9 rate, though his 3.32 FIP is partly influenced by a higher rate of home runs allowed, particularly away from home. At home, his HR/9 rate is 0.9. The Mariners are ranked 29th in runs scored. Both Suarez and deGrom are listed with similar salaries.

Framber Valdez of the Detroit Tigers is slated to pitch against the Kansas City Royals. Valdez is coming off a challenging start, but both the Tigers and Royals are near the bottom-10 offensively. Valdez’s 4.57 ERA would be his highest since 2019, but he still maintains a HR/9 rate below 1.00 and a groundball percentage over 50.0. Facing the Royals could offer an opportunity for Valdez to improve his performance.

Offensive Strategies and Player Spotlights

For offensive considerations, Jackson Chourio has posted an .890 OPS against left-handed pitchers and an .841 OPS at home. Kyle Freeland, whom Chourio may face, has struggled with an 8.28 road ERA, and right-handed batters have accounted for 56 of the 64 home runs he has allowed since 2024.

Freddie Freeman, following a strong performance on Saturday, has a .299 batting average. He has an 1.002 OPS on the road. He is expected to face Freddy Peralta, who enters with a 5.40 ERA. Tim Tawa, a right-handed batter, has struggled against lefties but has a .465 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers and an .886 OPS over the last three weeks. Miles Mikolas, with a 4.68 K/9 rate, holds a 5.60 ERA and a 1.93 HR/9 rate.

Jake Cronenworth, a left-handed second baseman, had a strong outing on Saturday, reaching base three times and stealing a base. He is set to face Janson Junk, who has a career 4.93 ERA and has allowed left-handed batters to hit .320 against him in recent seasons.

Team Matchups and Predicted Outcomes

Several team matchups are drawing attention for Sunday’s games. The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to play the Chicago Cubs, with Jameson Taillon pitching for the Cubs. Since 2024, Taillon has a 4.74 road ERA, which has increased to 6.21 this year. He recently allowed four runs and two home runs in 4.1 innings after returning from injury. The Pirates are considered a strong offensive team.

Key Pirates batters include Bryan Reynolds, a switch-hitter with an .800-plus OPS against both righties and lefties, and a .968 OPS at home this year. Brandon Lowe, a left-handed second baseman, has 21 home runs and 21 doubles through 96 games, with a .525 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. Ryan O’Hearn has an .867 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .950 OPS at home.

The Miami Marlins will face the San Diego Padres, with Walker Buehler pitching for the Padres. Buehler had a strong June but has an 11.88 ERA in July. His road ERA is 6.05, and left-handed batters have hit .290 against him over the past two years. Otto Lopez, a right-handed batter for the Marlins, is batting .331 with 27 doubles, 20 stolen bases, and six triples. He has an .814 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Liam Hicks has an .884 OPS against righties and an .869 OPS at home. Kyle Stowers has 32 extra-base hits this campaign and posted a .980 OPS against right-handed pitchers last season.

In other matchups, the Tampa Bay Rays are favored against the Cleveland Guardians, with Drew Rasmussen pitching for the Rays. The Rays’ pitching metrics over the last two weeks include a 3.37 xFIP and a 20 percent K-BB rate. The Boston Red Sox are favored against the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto’s lineup has produced a 69 wRC+ over the last 14 days, while Boston’s bullpen has a 1.51 ERA.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are favored against the Washington Nationals, with Arizona’s offense posting a 136 wRC+ and a .504 slugging percentage over the last two weeks. The Baltimore Orioles are narrow home favorites against the Atlanta Braves, with Baltimore’s pitching holding a 3.73 SIERA over the past two weeks. The Chicago Cubs are considered a strong value pick against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with Chicago’s underlying offensive production at 118 wRC+ compared to Pittsburgh’s 100 wRC+.

The New York Mets are an appealing pick against the Los Angeles Dodgers, with New York’s bullpen out-grading Los Angeles’ over the last two weeks in both ERA- and SIERA. The Kansas City Royals are considered a potential upset pick against the Detroit Tigers, despite Framber Valdez pitching for Detroit. The San Diego Padres are also seen as a value pick against the Miami Marlins, with Miami’s offense managing a 70 wRC+ over the last 14 days. The Houston Astros are at even odds against the Chicago White Sox, with Houston’s bullpen leading the slate with a 23.4 percent K-BB rate over the last two weeks.

The Colorado Rockies are a high-variance underdog pick against the Milwaukee Brewers, despite Colorado’s offense remaining limited. The Oakland Athletics are seen as a solid risk-reward play against the Minnesota Twins. The Cincinnati Reds are favored as road underdogs against the St. Louis Cardinals, with St. Louis ranking last in offensive production over the past two weeks. The Seattle Mariners are near pick ’em odds against the Texas Rangers, with Seattle’s pitching group being more reliable. The San Francisco Giants are favored against the Los Angeles Angels, with San Francisco’s bullpen boasting a 3.92 SIERRA across the past 14 days. Finally, the Philadelphia Phillies are favored against the New York Yankees, with Will Warren starting for New York and the Yankees hitting just .210 over their last 14 games on July 26.

Source: rotowire.com