The numbers
On March 28, 2026, Terrance McKinney will face Kyle Nelson at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, with McKinney entering the bout as a -180 favorite against Nelson, who is a +152 underdog. McKinney boasts a professional MMA record of 17-8, including 7 wins and 5 losses in the UFC, while Nelson holds a record of 17-6-1, with a UFC record of 5-5-1.
McKinney is coming off a disappointing loss to Chris Duncan, where he was submitted in the first round. Prior to that setback, he had achieved two consecutive victories, both of which he finished in the opening round. This pattern of explosive finishes has characterized McKinney’s career, as all of his fights have ended via finish, and he has only experienced one third round in his entire MMA journey.
In contrast, Kyle Nelson has been on a positive trajectory, winning 4 of his last 5 fights. He recently rebounded from an early stoppage loss to Steve Garcia with a decision victory over Matt Frevola. Nelson’s ability to adapt and recover has been a key aspect of his fighting style, and he will look to capitalize on McKinney’s recent struggles.
According to MMA Junkie staff predictions, McKinney is favored to win, with 8 out of 10 analysts picking him over Nelson. This reflects the general consensus that McKinney’s striking output is formidable; he lands an impressive 6.24 significant strikes per minute at a 56% accuracy rate, compared to Nelson’s 3.60 strikes per minute at 45% accuracy.
Ryan Wohl, a noted MMA analyst, commented on McKinney’s fighting style, stating, “McKinney is an elite athlete who fights at a pace that is hard to keep up with.” This highlights the challenge Nelson may face in matching McKinney’s intensity and speed in the octagon.
The fight is expected to start at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET and will be streamed live on Paramount+. Betting lines indicate that the fight’s total is set at 1.5 rounds, with the under being favored at -270, suggesting that observers expect a quick finish.
As the fight approaches, both fighters are preparing to showcase their skills and strategies. McKinney’s reputation as a finish-or-be-finished fighter adds an exciting dynamic to the matchup, while Nelson’s recent success could provide him with the momentum needed to secure a victory. Details remain unconfirmed regarding any last-minute changes to the fight card or conditions leading up to the event.