The numbers
The BA.3.2 variant of SARS-CoV-2, first identified in South Africa in November 2024, has rapidly spread across the globe. As of March 12, 2026, it has been detected in 29 U.S. states and Puerto Rico, with a prevalence of 0.55% among 5,238 sequences collected during the recent months. This variant has raised concerns due to its significant number of mutations, approximately 70 to 75 in its spike protein, which may impact the effectiveness of current vaccines.
In the United States, BA.3.2 has been identified through various means, including nasal swabs from six travelers and three airplane wastewater samples. Notably, laboratory studies suggest that BA.3.2 can efficiently evade antibodies, potentially reducing vaccine protection. Researchers have emphasized the importance of monitoring the spread of this variant, stating, “Monitoring the spread of BA.3.2 provides valuable information about the potential for this new SARS-CoV-2 lineage to evade immunity from a previous infection or vaccination.”
The first identification of BA.3.2 in the U.S. occurred on June 27, 2025, through the Traveler-Based Genomic Surveillance program. Since then, it has cocirculated with various JN.1 descendant lineages, with prevalences ranging from 10% to 40% in several European countries. As of February 11, 2026, BA.3.2 has been reported by at least 23 countries, indicating its widespread presence.
Phylogenetic analyses have revealed the emergence of two sublineages of BA.3.2, namely BA.3.2.1 and BA.3.2.2. The public health impact of COVID-19 remains significant, with estimates suggesting between 390,000 and 550,000 hospitalizations and 45,000 to 64,000 deaths during the 2024-2025 respiratory virus season. These numbers highlight the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19 variants, including BA.3.2.
Wastewater surveillance has emerged as an effective early warning system for detecting BA.3.2, allowing health authorities to monitor its spread more effectively. However, researchers caution that the extent of geographic spread of BA.3.2 may be underestimated due to limited genomic detection capabilities in many countries. As one group of researchers noted, “Because many countries have limited genomic detection and surveillance capacities, these detections likely underrepresent the actual geographic extent of spread.”
Details remain unconfirmed regarding the full impact of BA.3.2 on human health outcomes, as ongoing studies are needed to assess its implications. Continued genomic surveillance is crucial to track the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and determine its potential effect on public health. As the situation develops, health officials and researchers will be closely monitoring the variant’s behavior and its implications for vaccine efficacy and public health strategies.