Jody Demling, a prominent horse racing expert, is fading the morning-line favorite Renegade for the Kentucky Derby 2026 due to historical trends and post position challenges. Set to take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky, at 6:57 p.m. ET, this race has many factors at play that could influence its outcome.
Renegade stands at odds of 4-1, making him the current favorite. However, history shows that favorites have struggled in recent years; notably, none have won since 2018. Demling points out that Renegade has history working against him. “Renegade has history, in multiple aspects, working against him for Saturday’s race,” he stated.
Competing closely with Renegade are Further Ado and Commandment, both sitting at odds of 6-1. Chief Wallabee follows behind at 8-1. Meanwhile, three longshots—Intrepido, Six Speed, and Great White—are all tied at staggering odds of 50-1. This diversity in odds illustrates just how unpredictable horse racing can be.
That context matters because it highlights the uncertainty surrounding favorites. The fact that favorites haven’t won recently adds an element of intrigue to this year’s Derby. Furthermore, Danon Bourbon is making headlines as he attempts to become the first horse based out of Japan to win this prestigious race after a commanding victory in the Fukuryu Stakes by ten lengths.
Demling also emphasizes speed in his evaluations. “Of the two Japanese horses, Danon Bourbon has more speed than Wonder Dean, which is why I have him ranked higher,” he noted. With Irad Ortiz aboard Renegade—who has over 4,000 career wins but remains winless in nine previous Derby rides—the stakes are high for both horse and jockey.
This year’s race also offers a unique opportunity for those looking to capitalize on betting insights. “Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up,” Demling remarked about his predictions. His track record includes nailing the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double twelve times in the last seventeen years.
As observers prepare for what promises to be an exciting race day, many eyes will be on how these factors play out on Saturday. With Renegade facing significant challenges and other contenders like Danon Bourbon rising in prominence, fans and bettors alike will be eager to see how this year’s Kentucky Derby unfolds.